Simple Solution to the "Border Crisis"

In another e-mail bulletin today, Adrian Carrasquillo speculates that the Trump administration will use the Insurrection Act of 1807 "to obtain complete operational control of the southern border" by militarizing it.  The Act "allows the president to deploy U.S. armed forces and the national guard against Americans in situations of civil unrest."

This is insane for a lot of reasons, but one reason stands out among the rest:  there is a simple solution to the illegal immigrant problem, a solution that has existed for almost twenty years.  It has not solved the problem, for the simple reason that none of those involved want the problem solved.  

The solution is E-Verify.  At the heart of E-Verify is a database, provided by the Federal government, of all illegal aliens in the United States.  Given that the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants come to the US for jobs, it should be a simple task to simply check each prospective employee with E-Verify, hire those who are legal, and don't hire those who are illegal.  Given the speed with which news about the US border and immigration travels in North America, the flow of illegals should diminish to a trickle in - what, a month?  Two at most?   There!  Problem solved!

Except there's a problem:  Almost no one involved with the border and immigration wants it to work.  So it doesn't.

Here's an interesting map:

A map of U.S. state laws requiring the use of E-Verify as of 2015:

     State requires E-Verify for most public employers

  State requires E-Verify for some public contractors and subcontractors

  State requires E-Verify for all employers

E-Verify is not a Federal law, so states get to use it or not.  The grey states are the "nots."  Other states require contractors, subcontractors and/or public employees to be verified (red and blue).  And if you're any kind of employer in one of the yellow states, state law requires that you verify every employee.

This map is from 2015, so some things may have changed.  But the truth still is:  no one wants it to work, so it doesn't.  Consider:

• Immigrants - The process of verification is simple:  your name is entered into the database.  How does the employer know your name?  You just have to show him your papers.  So, if a relative or a friend, or an uncle who has retired back in Mexico, lends you their papers, you're in.  About half of those who go through the verification process are using someone else's ID.  Half.  I can't believe it either, but there it is in black and white.
• Business owners:  If you've got a difficult job with long hours and low pay, you're happy to hire someone who risked their life and freedom to come apply for it.  Illegal immigrants can be found swelling the ranks of construction laborers, maids and housekeepers, cooks, home health aides, and janitors and building cleaners.  If you want that kind of worker for that price, you're not going to look too hard at their ID - if you look at all.
• Politicians:  Those on the right need to be tough on illegal immigration, since so much misinformation has been fed to their constituents.  They love pounding the "border crisis" theme because it gets them re-elected.  And their campaigns benefit hugely from the fact that they mislead the public, putting the blame anywhere but on business owners, where it belongs. You can imagine how the business owners show their gratitude.     

If you're a yellow state, there should be close to zero illegal immigrants in your state who have jobs.  The fact that this is not the case means that the combination of immigrants desperate for a job, business owners desperate for cheap labor, and politicians desperate to get re-elected, is the cause of the "border crisis."  Turn off the jobs spigot, and the problem disappears. 

Why Tariffs Won't Work

I know, I know.  You (and I) are already tired of reading about the insufferable idiocy of Trump's policies, not to mention his incoherent verbal ramblings (Google "Trump groceries").  But here's something even the staunchest MAGA defender must recognize:  the fundamental premise of the tariff policy is flawed.,

Here it is:  We erect a tariff wall, so goods are more expensive to ship to the US; companies have to charge more for their goods made overseas, and so they see their sales plummet.  Then they say, "Hey - what if we produced our goods in the good ol' USA?"  Boom - more industry in America.  Lower prices.  Jobs!  MAGA!

Well, outside the fact that by the time any new factories are built and operating in the US we are two presidents down the line and the tariffs are ancient history, there's another, more fundamental problem.

Carlo Versano, Newsweek's political editor, addresses this problem in today's "The 1600" e-mail newsletter (still don't know how to link to them, sorry).  He uses Nike as an example.   Half of Nike's shoes are made in Vietnam.  There is now a 46% tariff on Vietnam.  So Nike - an American company - is out of luck, right?  Not going to be able to sell shoes with a 50% markup to pay the tariffs.  So - make them in America!

OK - let's assume that the tariffs are still in place and the world hasn't ended yet (a big ask) five years from now, and Nike has just spent millions on a new factory.  Let's start hiring Americans!

Right now, Vietnamese workers in Nike factories in Vietnam make, at most 10,000,000 Vietnamese dong (VND) a month, which sounds like a lot.  But Google says that 10,000,000 VND is the equivalent of $387.52 US - which is not a lot.  Per month.  And these are the best-paid Vietnamese workers.

A major reason for outsourcing manufacturing overseas is that labor is so much cheaper.  So much so, that a substantial number of Americans will not buy products which are made in the equivalent of a maquiladora, an overseas factory where workers - mostly women - are exploited in terms of pay and conditions.  

Would you take a full time factory job for $387.52 a month?  Right now the median factory worker's monthly salary in the US is almost ten times that - $3119.16.  How does building that factory and avoiding the tariffs make sense now?

Maybe by then the post-apocalyptic economy will be so compromised that $387.52/month will look good.  But then who will buy all the shoes?

Good lord.

Making Up Stories

I'll admit it:  I can be kind of rigid regarding truth and accuracy.  I can operate in their presence; in their absence, my brain kind of freaks out.  I can't complete a thought or solve a problem.  I can't move forward until I am on solid ground.

Most folks are a little more flexible and this, I guess, is what makes the world go 'round.  But everyone should know about, and then stop and consider, the central theme of an article in the New York Times Magazine, by journalist Ron Suskind, published in October of 2004.   The article is about faith and the Bush campaign (it was just weeks before the 2004 Presidential election), but it is memorable - and oft-quoted - for a staggering assertion made by an unnamed Bush advisor:

We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.

This is the article in which the term "reality-based community" first appeared:

The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the world really works anymore,"

This was almost exactly eight years after Fox News went on the air.  The political world was never the same again.  Truth, lies, accuracy and deception have simply become tools for use by the right wing and Republicans when they're needed to achieve a desired outcome.  The Democrats and the rest of the reality-based community have had trouble keeping up.

And then we come to the predictable conclusion:   our leaders have lost all connection with truth and accuracy.  Here is President Trump *, in his book "The Art of the Deal:"

I play to people's fantasies ... People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration—and it's a very effective form of promotion.

And Vice President JD Vance, on CNN's "State of the Nation" in September:

In a stunning admission, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, said he was willing “to create stories” on the campaign trail while defending his spreading false, racist rumors of pets being abducted and eaten in a town in his home state of Ohio.

I didn't say it, they did.  No matter where you stand in American politics, you know that your leaders are willing to make stuff up just to make you feel better.  They said so.

Unless this is all just an innocent form of exaggeration. 

* - This link takes you to a page that goes on forever, called "False or misleading statements by Donald Trump."

What the Rule of Law Looks LIke

 Marine LePen, who might be described as the Donald Trump of France*, has just been convicted of embezzlement, along with members of her party, National Rally RN.  She was sentenced today, and it seems that French courts are a little more serious about consequences** than we are:  a fine of 100,000 Euros (and 4.1M Euros for the party), house arrest for four years, and...

...she cannot run for office for five years, starting now.

Think of that when you eat your Freedom Fries.

* - She even ran for President, and did not win a majority, three times.  Spooky!

** - By the way, if there is any doubt about the Western right wing being in bed with the Russians, the Kremlin has "condemned" the decision and Vladimir Putin has "deplored" it.