This One

Turns out it's a combination of #1 and #2:  "The files are released and they don't provide much more information than we have now.  Everyone argues and is outraged for a while, and slowly, the whole thing disappears."

Which Will it Be?

We're back.

You may remember that three months ago I suggested that the release of the Epstein files would not result in any consequences for Donald Trump.  Today they were "released," and the analysis begins.  It's too soon, apparently, to determine the full impact of what we now have.  Here are the possibilities I laid out then:

1. The files are never released.  Everyone argues and is outraged for a while, and slowly, the whole thing disappears.
2. The files are released and they don't provide much more information than we have now.
3. The files are released and they exonerate everyone.
4. The files are released and they make it clear that Trump committed felony sexual abuse on minors.
5. The files include actionable evidence that Donald Trump raped minors.
6. The files are released and, no matter what they say, everyone has had so long to calcify their opinions on Trump and underaged girls that no significant changes are observed.

I went on to say, "4 and 5 are not likely.  #s 1, 2, and 3, or some combination will no doubt be what happens."

We'll see.